Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Preakness day, Post #2
Now for the order of the four contenders:
Most likely:
AFERDS CODE RED (10-1 ML), loves to win, has class edge, never lost at
this level, trainer profitable off layoffs. Has rail. Once did win off
similar layoff for same trainer.
CHASM’s (8-1 ML) losses came in open company and the last time he was
at today’s level, it happened to be Canterbury, and he won the route
race. Please note that his recent losses were against open company.
Horse for course at Canterbury. The layoff is some concern, as is the
switch to a low-percentage rider.
CALEB BOY (5-1 ML), has good record at Cby and was second here at 5K
open company, higher than today’s group of 5K non-winners  for the
year. That place came at 24-1. The layoff is cause for concern because
his last lay-1 race saw him finish last by 27.
TYTUS (6-5 ML) has lost three times precisely at today’s level,
finishing close up, yes, but all three times as odds-on favorite. This
could be the most likely place finisher, based on his back class.
No wonder this was chosen as the problem race. The best horses have
knocks against them.
I could have made arguments for Top Authority if you consider his only
losses at today’s or lesser level to be prep races for a trainer who
has a positive roi third after layoff. However, with the 6% overall
win rate for the rider, coupled with the 7% overall rate for the
trainer, this is not a high percentage chance. The horse does like
Canterbury.
I could have made arguments for Gin Stinger but the trainer is 0 for
15 this year, and the rider, once a good one, has 3% wins for the
year.
In conclusion, I have AFERD’S CODE RED as the best-value win bet, plus
TYTUS as the exacta backwheel horse.
PREAKNESS
I am still having trouble getting past RACHEL ALEXANDRA, even if it is
try that the filly has a new owner and trainer. Among the second tier
of horses, six or seven of them have a chance to pop up and I cannot
really separate them, and if they did not look good then, why should
they look good now. Based on the Derby trip, MUSKET MAN looks like the
most deserving, but this all depends on the odds, and it also requires
MM to recover from the big effort two weeks ago. MINE THAT BIRD took
advantage of the rail and the slop while MUSKET MAN went wide. The
different horse is BIG DRAMA. Considering the weakness of the Derby
field, this horse has speed from the rail in a field without much
early speed beyond the filly’s. BIG DRAMA’s trainer has 17% wins
overall but 23% wins on lay-1 and with a flat-bet profit. Should
RACHEL ALEXANDRA react negatively to the new training regimen, then
BIG DRAMA could have a chance to steal, but that is unlikely, and BIG
DRAMA’s previous route wins were just as suspect as those of the Derby
crowd. Both Baffert’s and Jones’ horses could inherit a good trip and
make amends, as could the Derby fourth place finisher, but ho hum,
these are not horses you can love.
I am leaning towards passing the race. RA looks better than the rest
at a low price.

PROBLEM RACE # 2: THE DIXIE (Pimlico race 11 on the turf)
This race is no easier than the Preakness but at least it’s more than
just “obvious” versus “potential surprise” with nothing in between. So
to make up for not having a pick in the Preakness, I expose myself to
this second truly problematic race.
Here I have an exotic inclusion, in JUST AS WELL and a possible win
bet, PARADING. Please evaluate my arguments as you study the pps. A
couple of the classier horses here may need this Grade 3 race and may
be pointed to higher and later, including LAURO, who is the lightly
raced class horse who once beat Rail Link, a horse that went on to win
the Arc de Triomphe. If it were not for the layoff, I would love
LAURO. The favorite, PROUDINSKY looks obvious from the rail but once
lost as the fave to STRIKE A DEAL, another class horse (SAD is also
coming back after a layoff), so though PROUDINSKY can certainly win,
she’s not worth a win bet at the low odds.
JUST AS WELL has been in a Grade 1 twice, finishing third and second
(at 24-1) as an overachiever. In that place finish, he was second to
the classy Kip Deville. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard is no bargain in the
roi department but he knows this horse and he also knows Maryland
racing. Aside from the class horses LAURO and STRIKE A DEAL, who
confront a difficult layoff, PARADING is an improving horse with a
“Big Win” by 7 lengths and the type of improving early speed that
could control the pace. WESLEY and KISS THE KID also have some chance.
Given the lack of real early speed, I can only make the deep closer
JUST A DEAL an exotic inclusion. PARADING has the C&X “Big Win” in his
last race, which was second after the layoff. He has also defeated
Strike a Deal. He is the pace control candidate, either from a front
or a pressing position.MC