Mark Cramer
C & X Report

ARLINGTON MILLION DAY

STAKES WEEKEND

Post 2

A couple of loyal C&X readers are dealing with health problems, and I wish them well.

I have finished my analysis of the Arlington Million. If anything else occurs to me about either the Beverly D or the Secretariat Stakes, I will ask Dave to post my third message tomorrow.

The Secretariat Stakes is wide open and the trainer of favored Giant Oak, Chris Block, knows the Arlington turf course better than any other trainer in the USA. I also like Dominguez getting back on Laureate Conductor, one of several horses in the field that project to improve.

The Beverly D favorite, Pure Clan, is entirely legitimate. I still tried hard to become a wiseguy backer of Alnadana on the notion that the dominant owner-breeder Aga Khan does not ship to the USA unless he really means business. I like the Euro early speed. However, I checked the Arlington program and this horse is only 4-1, a third choice. His last race at Maisons Laffitte was a walk in the park. He beat nothing. Black Mamba looks like second or third in the exacta. Canadian horses do well at Arlington, so Points of Grace has to be considered with Dominguez aboard.

So far I have no idea of what I can do with the above races, and I have the nagging feeling of not having made any sort of discovery.

ARLINGTON MILLION

Here I have been able to split hairs. Yes, Gio Ponti is the deserving favorite. You can see it in the pps. But he has to close ground in a relatively short Arlington stretch that will favor the runaway Presious Passion. In races with riders other than Elvis Trujillo, Precious Passion has won 25 percent of his turf races. Then he switched to Trujillo for 4 wins in 5 tries on turf. That’s 80 percent. I have decided to judge him on the 80%. They will have to catch him. I love his Gulfstream race (21Feb), where he actually had to duel at the outset and then they were catching him in the stretch. Unbelievably, he had more gas in the tank and left them in his wake. The classy Spice Route (3^rd) was one of the humiliated in that race with Mr. Sidney fourth, and this looks like the most heroic of any race in the Arlington pps.

I am convinced on using Gloria de Campeao, who seems like a much classier presser than Recapturetheglory. The Pascal Bary trainer angle (hot trainer now and knows Arlington) plus the horse’s brilliant-looking win in Singapore have convinced me. His second at 52-1 in the Dubai World Cup is another indicator of class and the ability to ship anywhere. This horse has first shot at Presious Passion.

Meanwhile, Einstein has one win in his last three turf tries when he was only a head in front of Cowboy Cal, with two "excuses". Einstein had a bad experience in last year’s edition of the Million. Thus, I place him a notch below Presious Passion and Gloria de Campeao.

Cima de Triomphe has a touch of class but is a cut below the top. Yes, he once beat Conduit, but Conduit was coming back after a 5-month layoff. The other horses in this field are all capable of picking up pieces if the favorites have a bad day.

My plan is to try to hit an exotic by keying both GLORIA DE CAMPEAO and PRESIOUS PASSION, with possible win bets on each. I cannot tell you how I will manage my money because I make such decisions as I watch the board.

And, as always, my job here is to try to provide you with objective information or synthesis that might not have been available to you. It’s your job to use as you choose, in relation to your own handicapping. The big chaos provoker could be the 90 plus temperature and high humidity.

Mark

PS. It's also Hambletonian day at the Meadowlands. On the undercard, in the Nat Ray, Lanson looks like a longshot exotic inclusion, combined with the usual faves.

PSS. If you like racing, travel and bicycling, I’ve begun to post episodes in my “personal Tour de France” 300 kilometer bicycle race track tour at

www.altiplanopublications.com