Mark Cramer
C & X Report

The Arc de Triomphe is the classiest race in the world, based on
analysis of the other races that Arc horses have run in. It is a true
spectacle.
For the moment, the overlay possibility in the Arc is Zambezi Sun. The
great trainer, Pascal Bary, has never had a winner in the Arc, but his
star has shone in the BC. Often my Arc picks come up short and then
win in teh BC, so Zambezi Sun should also be considered for his
follow-up race.
Three weeks back, there were three Arc preps. Zambezi Sun comes from
by far the fastest of the preps, the Prix Niel, where he finished
third without being whipped. In Arc stats, the Prix Niel has by far
produced the most winners, and overlapping that stat is the fact that
3-year olds have dominated the Arc (the Prix Niel is for 3yos).
Zambezi Sun was defeated in that prep by the Aiden O'Brien horse,
Soldier of Fortune. I played the Soldier that day because he was
favored by an early speed bias. Also, he had more reason to want to
win that prep. This time, especially if it does't rain, Zambezi Sun,
who had closed against the bias, should change the result to his
favor.
The race favorite, Authorized, was the Epsom Derby winner. Epsom Derby
winners rarely do well in the Arc de Triomphe, and Authorized will be
no bargain at low odds.
Authorized gets some points thanks to Dettori in the saddle and the
fact that the Arc has produced 40% winning favorites.
The filly Mandesha cannot be totally discarded. Her 4yo races, three
place finishes, have been disappoining, but the Aga Khan has been
pointing to the Arc since a year ago, and this filly should improve.
At the moment, Zambezi Sun is the key horse. But I will read through
all the trainer commentary in tomorrow morning's papers, and go deeper
into the race. Stay tuned.

The Clement Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship at Oak Tree
Once again, The Tin Man, surely an odds-on fave, will inherit a huge
pace advantage. The only other speed horse in the field is Republican
Hawk, and his speed does not come from classy races. Even if he gets
the lead, The Tin Man would be the lone presser.
The Tin Man has a similar advantage in the Arlington Million but
failed to hold off a Canadian horse in the stretch. My feeling is that
the Tin Man is not quite the same competitor he has been in previous
years (even though the third Arlington Million finisher came back to
win).
The longshot chance is Artiste Royale. In this same race last year,
Artiste Royale lost by only a half length to The Tin Man. This year,
The Tin Man has lost a bit of his competitive edge while Artiste
Royale has gone form a low percentage barn to that of Neil Drysdale.
This convergence of changes could make a difference. Artiste Royale
came back after 9 months off to finish close to the winner in a
troubled trip. He's not a win type and the pace scenario does not
favor him but you could have said the same for the winner fo the
Arlington Million.
My feeling is to use Artiste Royale in second place under The Tin Man
in the exacta, with a backup win bet on Artiste Royale. Republican
Hawk is the X horse, with everything in the pp sequence pointing to
this horse moving up.
In summary, the horse to use is Artiste Royale.
Zambezi Sun is the Arc overlay possibility, but stay tuned for a
fuller Arc report tomorrow, after I've watched how certain horses do
on Saturday's card: horses that have previously been in fields with
Sunday's Arc contenders.
mc