Mark Cramer
C & X Report

JUVENILE FILLIES
I'm getting a jump today so there will be no cutting corners during crunch time. When I finally post my line, I will probably not return to the analysis, unless there are new elements, so this earlier analysis should be taken into account.
Normally the Juvenile Fillies (for me) is either a "C" race (not a major discovery) or a "D" race, unplayable. Any horse that was competitive in the major prep races has a chance, and one or more may improve, since they are young horses. This means that what they did in the past does not necessarily project into a chartable line.
I looked long and hard at this race, where I cannot eliminate half the field (the normal requirement for a playable race).
With that in mind, I looked for some shape of the race that might favor one or two horses over their equals. Turns out that in the major preps, the Matron, the Oak Leaf, the Alcibiades and the Frizette), ALL WINNERS CAME FROM FROM OFF THE PACE, while all front runners died or COULD NOT LAST.
We have a lot of fillies with not a lot of route speed. So I looked for one with sprint speed that could control the race. I came up with SIS CITY, the filly that Dutrow was gonna scratch and then decided not to. SIS CITY is also the only front runner from the major preps to put away speed horses and last to stay in the money. The probable rider may be JR Velasquez, and one wonders if JR will do better at pacing the filly than Coa. The indecision of Dutrow a plus for this filly, but the pace edge is.
With a shorter stretch at LS and a lot of horses looking for room to close, the one that gets first shot on SIS CITY might have an edge.
That looks to be IN THE GOLD, who nearly prevailed for Zito in the Alcibiades. You can also control the pace as lone presser, and IN THE GOLD looks mighty good from this perspective.
CULINARY already defeated the eventual winner of the Alcibiades, Runway Model. Why not again? We must have respect for Michael Stidham, who knows this section of the country, and sooner or later should be able to establish a stakes record.
MONA LISA may not be fast enough early enough in a field where speed could be the big factor. However, MONA LISA has a class and pedigree potential, and her dad, Giant's Causeway, nearly won the BC Classic on dirt. You gotta ask why they would enter a maiden in such a race. These guys are good with 2yos.
You can make good arguments for at least six other entrants, so we are skating on this ice.
This is a C race. With so many sensible possibilities, can't take less than 8-1 in a race like this. The probable favorite, Sweet Calomine, is nearly a Big Win horse for the dangerous trainer Julio Canani. This race is like being at an all-you-can-eat buffet. You risk filling up and only then discovering that you missed the best dish.
Still, the 46.1 interior route fraction of SIS CITY looks tasty.