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Mark Cramer's C & X Report for the HandicappingEdge.Com.

Thursday, June 07, 2007


BELMONT STAKES WEEKEND
Before we get to our brief analysis, let me apologize for being a
slowpoke with the next C&X issue. Please be patient. Recent issues
have been top quality and I want to raise the bar, or at least sustain
the quality.
WHITTINGHAM STAKES
LAVA MAN is back from his fiasco at Dubai, and he's a California-only
horse, 2-for-2 on the HOL turf course, including a win at the
distance. Both he and AFTER MARKET (1 for 1 Hol turf) are fast enough
to not allow the constantly improving Lang Field to steal the race.
Lang Field's trainer is hyper-dangerous in stakes races. But
Shirreffs, the trainer of AFTER MARKET, has a high win percentage and
flat bet profit in all categories. AFTER MARKET beat the same horse by
2 lengths that LAVA MAN beat by two lengths. Figuring that LAVA MAN
will be favored, I'm going with AFTER MARKET.
THE BELMONT
Normally, long-winded routers hope they can close ground at the extra
distance of a marathon, but in fact, the pace sometimes favors early
speed or pressers. Hard Spun is the overworked horse in a pace duel
with the cheaper speed Slew's Tizzy. Everything else comes from way
off, including Curlin. (CP West is mid-pack.) The lone presser seems
to be the filly, RAGS TO RICHES.
The breeding is perfect on RAGS TO RICHES. AP Indy was a later
developer who won the Belmont, and the half sister of RAGS TO RICHES
won last year's Belmont. Gomez's agent tried to get his rider off Hard
Spun and back onto RAGS TO RICHES when RAGS got in.
I like RAGS TO RICHES for the three reasons mentioned: Pace, Pedigree
and Politics.
ATTENTION. This is somewhat of a personal Triple Crown for yours
truly. I have never picked the winner on top of all 3 Triple Crown
races. You've seen on this website that I put Street Sense on top in
the Derby and Curlin on top in the Preakness. If you're into
statistics, then you'd have to believe that Cramer cannot get the job
done this third time in a row.
For what it's worth, I'll stick with RAGS TO RICHES on top.
mark
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Posted by: Mark / 9:17 PM

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