Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Friday, July 17
Final Claiming Crown thoughts
Just returned from the backside with some good stuff. We had unanswered questions from last night.
Look at the IRON HORSE, Race 4, and have our odds lines in front of you.
The question on ROUGH DRAFT and the reason we had him as second choice was because you couldn't tell his legit class level buried in all those starter allowances. We put the question to owner Dan Lynch, who is also winner of handicapping contests. Lynch says that Book Seven, 9 lengths behind Rough Draft on 28May at CD is a legit winner at 20,000 and that Rough Draft belongs between 20k and 25k.
(That would put him above the 18.5K recent win of GRAM'S FOLLY.)
Nearly a year ago, Lynch had designs for the Claiming Crown, so they gave Rough Draft so slow works, put a low-percentage rider on him, and entered him at the necessary claiming price to be eligible for Claiming Crown. The horse was not claimed and the rest of the year was spend shopping for Starter Alw spots where they wouldn't lose him.
"The only race he lost in his last 8 starts was after 50 days off and he didn't have Albarado on him. He's a versatile horse. He can lead and he can close. He can't be any better than he is right now."
With this information, I'd have to revise my line on the race:
Gram's Folly, 5/2
Rough Draft, 5/2
That doesn't mean we can bet him, as Gram's Folly will go off at higher odds and may still be the bet. Gotta use 'em both in exotics.
But the debate is not over. We went to the Scott McKinnon barn to ask about Gram's Folly's true class level. The amiable Mckinnon is a 24 percent trainer and he knows what he's doing. GRAM'S FOLLY was a successful sprinter so they kept him short, but they finally decided on going long in the Claiming Crown because, as the owner added:
"He ran 1.41 flat at Belmont." (It doesn't show in the pps.)
In fact, looking carefully at the pps, his Beyers go up the longer he runs. His Beyers go up the longer he runs. His 91 at Charles Town was at a 2-turn 7 furlong race while Rough Draft earned an 85 at a one-turn mile.
When I mentioned Rough Draft's 20,000 class credentials, McKinnon pointed to the pps from 15Jan at Laurel. "That was 32,000, and there were legitimate allowance horses in that field...plus he was steadied in that race."
Scott McKinnon was a rider in the '80s until he gained too much weight.
"I like to claim old horses and rehabilitate them. By coming from a sprint, Gram's Folly will have more advantages with the pace."
McKinnon knows he'll have a tougher time in The Jewel, with Torch The Halls. He figures to have his horse stalking the pressers, and hopes the Lake stretchout horse will not get the distance.
THE RAPID TRANSIT, Seventh Race
More on Satan's Code
We talked to the agent of leading rider Derek Bell, who will be aboard Satan's Code. Richard Grunder notes:
"Lake got him from hunter-jumper people who didn't know what to do with him. Joey [Rocco] told me he had a ton of horse. Satan's Code's my best shot."
THE EXPRESS, fifth race
Rider Joel Campbell makes no predictions about his Chisholm, except to tell us that his horse is sharp and fast. As for the running style, he'll decide according to the way the race is setting up.
As you know from my line, this is a 5-deep race, but Campbell's horse happens to be the highest odds of the five.
FIERRO'S OPINES
In THE JEWEL, 9th race
"I am making a one-way play to close out the series. It's Spooky Mulder wire to wire. It's awfully hard to beat what you cna't catch sometimes. He is facing some decent early route speed. He is sprint speed however and at a mile and an eighth this can be dangerous."
In THE EMERALD, 8th race
"I have two runners center stage: He Flies and Stage Player. Stage Player beat a nice runner in Musical Chimes. The price play (and my first call) is probably going to be He Flies. Bejerano is up and this gelding is making his third start off a layoff for Kenneally."
Fierro likes this one at 5/2 or better.
You have Fierro's lines, and mine, on our other posts.
ON BEJARANO
I only ended up with Bejerano on one of my top contenders, but he's in the mix of most of my legit contenders. If he gets four winners it would be absolutely no surprise. He faces no other major riders here. I'm considering, as a backup bet, before I get into the real action, doing an all Bejarano wager, the way I did with Gary Stevens. Only one of Bejarano's horses is ML fave, so I'll close my eyes and put an equal amount on all his horses, as if it were a single wager.
Good luck.
Mark