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Mark Cramer's C & X Report for the HandicappingEdge.Com.

Friday, May 04, 2007


POST 3
Track condition.
At this moment, forecast is 50% chance of rain. Track has been sealed
several times. That may have more effect on the outcome than the rain
itself. Pletcher says that of all tracks, Churchill dries out best.
Friday's surface was listed as sloppy when the card began.
Normally I try not to change picks on the basis of track condition. I
get burned too often, predicting the weather, and then predicting how
the track maintenance crew will respond to it.
Often, the results are not determined by the track condition. I did
pick a Wood Memorial exacta last year on this website, based on mud
breeding, but only because the track condition was certain, and both
horses were good on any surface.
In any case, I did some research that you can combine with the
Tomlinson ratings. Since Tomlinson considers the sire and dam sire,
but not the dam herself, who should be half the formula, I checked
dams of our top three.
STREET SENSE. Dam finished first on only muddy track, at Churchill!
Was second on a wet fast.
ZANJERO. Has high Tomlinson mud rating, in the 400s.
NO BIZ. Dam has no off track record, but she had a 406 wet-track
Tomlinson rating.
Thus, we have no great evidence that our horses will move up in the
mud, but certainly there's some evidence that they should not move
down.
If you want to be a weather handicapper and choose horses by track
condition you have all the info on their race experience and
Tomlinsons in the pps.
Last point. I visualize Zanjero perhaps being there but maybe coming
up short. Third place in exotics??
Posted by: Mark / 6:33 PM
KENTUCKY DERBY
Post 2
I've been watching the replays and making binary comparisons. SCAT
DADDY, in the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth, looked like ANY
GIVEN SATURDAY in the Wood. Both raced outside. Even though NOBIZ LIKE
SHOBIZ was challenged all the way, ANY GIVEN couldn't get past him in
the stretch. SCAT, on the other hand, looked more powerful in his
closing moves from the outside. NOBIZ came up short in the Fountain of
Youth while steadied on the first turn, but that was a race in which
the early speed was less challenged. That's why Stormello was still
there at the end.
Now to the Blue Grass. The question is, which horse was hurt more:
ZANJERO by being on the dead rail or Great Hunter by taking up. I
believe that ZANJERO gets extra points for his effort.
What I fear about Zanjero is that he can flatten out. But still be in the money.
I would like to add NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ to the mix. In watching his
Fountain of Youth and Wood, I observe that he's tough when in a crowd
(important for the Derby) and that he can go both ways, up from and
close ground.
I was tempted to add SCAT DADDY to the mix, but in the end, his
working out in bar shoes is not a good sign, even if the trainer says
it's just for extra protection for the feet.
I cannot eliminate Cowtown Cat (improved when stretching out) or
Circular Quay, in spite of the layoff. Nor can I eliminate Hard Spun,
though he's really been facing lesser horses. CURLIN could be a
monster, but the price is not at all right, given the knocks.
Nor can I eliminate DOMINICAN. He has some good lines and looks to be improving.
Summary in order
STREET SENSE, most likely winner. The fact that no BC Juvy winner has
ever won the Derby is contradicted by the fact that no BC Juvy winner
has even had such a smooth path to the Derby and looked so good, as
Welsh confirms. I believe that Beyer picked him, and that he's gotten
attention from the DRF crowd. But the odds still may be ok.
ZANJERO, the exotic inclusion. He came from way off the pace in
Louisiana and ran with the pace at Keeneland. Each time he seemed
better than his finish position. Welsh observes: "conveys the
impression he's coming up to a top effort."
NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ, also a tough customer. A further plus: he's an
"informed minority" horse, picked only by Free.
DOMINICAN may be the most significant "informed minority" horse, as
Steve Klein is one of the best at finding an overlay winner. Klein was
an informed minority with Volponi and picked Charismatic. He's based
in Kentucky.
SCAT DADDY could go off at a price. Watch the board.
TIAGO is the other "informed minority" horse, and could be an
improver, for a seasoned stable.
THE OAKS
No change from yesterday: Rags to Riches, High Heels and Mistical
Plan, in any order. I was concerned about MP's outside post and speed
insider of him, but in the end, the fact that he was an early speed
horse on the polytrack and switches to regular dirt works in his
favor.
As always, remember that Triple Crown races are part sport and do not
concern the day-in day-out in-the-trenches betting. There is a
recreational component. There is also a big element of chaos and
randomness. If you like something, do not get touted off. One can make
"reasons" for nearly every horse in the field.
mc
PS. Late breaking news. I just received Steve Fierro's picks. He put
Nobiz Like Showbiz on top. He's not in the DRF grid, so I suppose
NBLSB is still an "informed minority".
Posted by: Mark / 7:07 AM

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