Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Here is post 1 for the Belmont Stakes Weekend.
CONTENTS:
Bet-Down-Overlay in repair shop
Belmont: will pace make the race?
Still waiting for Problem Race
BET-DOWN OVERLAY IN REPAIR SHOP
I received an independent sample on the Bet-Down Overlay Method from a
C&X reader which cause me to be concerned. Times may have changed, and
my recent sample came from harness races, so please put on hold until
we find the snag.
BELMONT STAKES
My winning analysis of the Dixie at Pimlico was based on a pace
advantage and for the Belmont it looks as if a considerable pace
advantage has materialized. Frequently in long distance races, you get
a lot of long-winded closers, whose trainers feel they will have a
better chance at a longer distance. Result: a speed horse or lone
presser behind cheap speed can steal the race.
If you do the Quirin speed points on the Belmont contestants, you
discover that only two horses have anything resembling early speed.
The last time I saw such a group of gifted “waiters” (I mean those who
mill around) assembling was at a Havana bus stop.
The only two speed horses are CHARITABLE MAN and MINER’S ESCAPE. But
Miner’s Escape looks like a slowpoke. His fractions in the Federico
Tesio at Pimlico were 10 lengths slower than the Preakness fractions.
CHARITABLE MAN’s Belmont fractions in the Peter Pan, a race that often
produces a Belmont winner, project to be broad daylight ahead of what
Miner’s Escape can offer.
Several Belmont runners could decide to blast back to their past,
where they showed some degree of early foot, including the favored
Mine That Bird, but their adjusted early pace figures in those
apparently early-speed efforts do not measure up.
Another classic Belmont factor is the horse for course, and once
again, CHARITABLE MAN measures up, with 2 for 2 at Belmont and 3 for 3
on dirt. I will have a re-look at his Bluegrass race, the only one he
lost, where he was 7 wide in the early going after having begun from
post 9.
Yes, the other riders know that Garcia stole last year’s Belmont, but
which ones are willing to sacrifice themselves early to help their
rivals.
The freshness factor works in favor of CHARITABLE MAN over Mine That
Bird. Both ML makers have the Bird as fave and CM as second fave. Even
if these two were co-favorites, I would have to go with CHARITABLE
MAN.
Only reserve: the wise guys may be gravitating around CM, and very
often, the “wiseguy choice” gets egg in his face. I’ll be back with a
further comment.
PROBLEM RACE
So far, nothing in from a reader. Dave was suggesting that the
Manhattan looks impossible to handicap. If no reader comes forth with
a Problem Race, I will probably choose the Manhattan. Stay tuned.
mc