Mark Cramer
C & X Report

ARLINGTON MILLION DAY:  REPORT 1
This preliminary report covers the analysis of two races. We may
include another race if time permits. I had been interested in
Saratoga but the Friday card was washed out, and conditions look too
iffy for Saturday.
ARLINGTON MILLION
In the Arlington Million, not a single horse can be eliminated. With
an expected slow early pace, it will be tough for a horse like
Silverfoot to get up on time, and other horses that often come from
off the pace, including Cloudy's Knight, Stream Cat, and including the
two favorites, Archipenko and Mount Nelson will have to make their
class overcome their pace handicaps.
Archipenko comes from a top stable, and look how they turned the horse
around into a winner with the addition of blinkers. He's a mid-pack
runner.
Mount Nelson has the hottest stakes trainer in the world, but this
horse too needs to rate in mid-pack.
You'd think that would make things easier for Einstein, the top
American hopeful. But in his last race, with a dream trip along the
rail, he was unable to win as the 1-2 favorite in a 5-horse field. On
one occasion he won as a front runner, but more often he presses, and
sometimes races mid-pack.
Stream Cat has just covered this same trip/same course, defeating a
4-horse field in which he raced for the early fractions in last place.
The long-winded Cloudy's Night has defeated Stream Cat and finished
only a half length behind Einstein at a shorter distance. That should
have left us with Frankel's Sudan, who seemed to be a possible
lone-front runner. But Sudan has been scratched. Which horse will
inherit the lead?
Oddly, it may be the French horse, Spirit One. Now here's the dilemma.
This is the first time I've seen trainer Philippe Dermercastel ship a
horse to the USA, and foreign trainers usually need more "practice"
before getting the shipping game right. Furthermore, contrary to the
other two foreign horses, Spirit One has not had any experiences
crossing borders, confined to the Paris region.
But look at some other comparables. As a 2-year-old, a 3/5 Spirit One
finished a head behind Mount Nelson. On 15March08 Spirit One defeated
a horse named Balius by three clean lengths. Balius was six better
than the rest. The probable Arlington favorite, Archipenko, defeated
the same Balius by a length and three quarters. Now if Archipenko,
Mount Nelson and Spirit One all were to have the same odds, we'd have
trouble separating them. However Spirit One figures to be the longest
odds of the three.
Another indicator of the level of Spirit One is the fact that back in
Europe, Sudan regularly lost to the consistent Boris de Deauville.
Spirit One regular finishes ahead of Boris de Deauville.
Two races back, Spirit One finished 2 ½ lengths back of the best
current turf horse in the world: Duke of Marmalade. All three horses
ahead of him, the Duke, Saddex and Sageburg, went on to win high level
stakes races.
Philippe Demercastel wins more than 15% of his races in France, so
he's no slouch. He's also given Spirit One a workout at Arlington, and
the horse reportedly looked good.
Spirit One has a profile of an underachieving Euro horse: this type of
underachiever is a front runner. Front runner Euro horses are going
against a universal bias. Spirit One might find himself more at home
with a faster American pace. I checked more on the trainer and it
turns out he was an assistant to none other than André Fabre, and once
traveled with Fabre to Arlington.
Spirit One also has a good chance to finish second, given his
propensity to get the lead and then lose it near the end. Most of the
time he loses the lead to only one horse.
At the moment, I am looking at Spirit One as a possible key horse.
One last word: I was once asked by the agent of a top American trainer
to ask rider Ioritz Mendizabal if he'd like a riding contract in the
USA. This 20% American trainer was impressed by Mendizabal. I told the
rider about the offer. The cordial and affable Ioritz Mendizabal
responded that he would love to ride in the states but he rode for top
trainers in Europe and had commitments with those trainers.
He's aboard Spirit One. Spirit One looks like a good key horse.
BEVERLY D
Mendizabal is also aboard the filly Cicerole in the Beverly D.
Cicerole has raced two of her last three races against the boys. Twice
she defeated a horse named Athanor. Curiously, the probable second
favorite in the Arlington Million, Mount Nelson, was defeated by
Athanor.  So we should love Cicerole, shouldn't we?
Not so fast. The probable favorite in this field, Precious Kitten,
shows three grade 1 victories in his pps. No other horse in the field
shows any win at Grade 1 level.
Furthermore, unlike the favorites in the Arlington Million, Precious
Kitten is not confronting a negative pace situation. Precious Kitten
looks very much like the lone presser, sitting behind two front
runners: Dreaming of Anna and Rosinka, both grade 3 winners. Both
Dreaming of Anna and Rosinka are capable of laying slightly off the
leader, but both riders know this. With no conspiracy, what if they
each tried to track the other: if so, the predicted fast pace might
not even materialize. The deep closers would then have their chances
diminished.
As you can see, the pace scenario is not as predictable as it looks,
and this makes it more difficult to evaluate the chances of the
probable second favorite, Mauralakana, winner of her last three for
Christophe Clement, two of which were grade 2 races. When Mauralakana
was in the troubled barn of Patrick Biancone, she went to post at 15-1
and lost Graham Motion's Rosinka (one of today's front runners), and
lost by a neck. She's improved much since that near miss. Further
complicating the situation is that Motion, Frankel (trainer of
Precious Kitten) and Clement have all done well in big races at
Arlington, as has the de facto owner of the place, 40% Wayne Catalano,
trainer of Dreaming of Anna.
I began making a line on the race but it was resembling the public
handicappers, which means I have no special insight.
Precious Kitten does have a potential weakness. She's returning after
a layoff. She shows three losses in three tries in her comeback races,
but two of those races were sharp efforts. The most likely finish is
the lone Grade I winner Precious Kitten ahead of the only horse to win
at Grade ll, Mauralakana. But either of the front runners could steal
it if they slow it down.
Rosinka has defeated the winner of last year's Beverly D as well as
defeating Mauralakana, and could go off at overlay odds. If you look
at the bottom two lines of her pps, back in England, she certainly
looked much worse than the two Euro fillies in this race.
Which leaves me mulling over Cicerole. Trainer Rouget is a designer
trainer for the first half of the year with an extraordinary high
percentage of winners and then tends to slacken off when his horses
are no longer fresh and the races become tougher. In the case of
Cicerole, we have a very fresh filly that has won the last two times
she came back after a layoff. At the moment I have not decided how to
act this out: maybe try getting her into the tri.
I'll send another report on Saturday. I asked Dave to post it by 9am
SoCal time so Eastern readers can have it by noon.
MC