Mark Cramer
C & X Report

This is probably the final post.
However, if I have a vision in the waking hours of Saturday I will
send one more report, so please check your mail when you get up.
Thanks,
Mark
BC REPORT 6
This looks like our final post.
I have no opinion about the Juvenile Turf.
Regarding The Juvenile, I would say that BUSHRANGER can be an exotic
inclusion. The comparable I find is with SQUARE EDDIE, who came from
classless races in Europe and was won easily at Keeneland on the
synth. BUSHRANGER comes from much classier races, so he should be able
to make a parallel transition at this higher level.
The other comparable is that we see that WESTPHALIA is a possible
favorite in the Juvenile Turf, and BUSHRANGER easily defeated
WESTPHALIA back in the old country.
Moving the The Sprint, everything figures just the way you see it on
paper and I have no special insight. MIDNIGHT LUTE could rise to the
occasion or flop, and after the fact it will be so obvious to us. The
two favorites here look just fine. That's the problem.
The unknown horse here is FATAL BULLET. But at only 6-1 in the ML, we
don't have a toteblaster. This is the horse that could show a marked
improvement, given the age. You get a horse that's undefeated at the
distance and 7 for 8 on various synth tracks. He could be the
posterboy for synthetic surfaces. Put him on the dirt and he loses by
17. Put him on the Turf and he loses by 14. But then COST OF FREEDOM
and STREET BOSS are similarly endowed.
Can FATAL BULLET defeat COST OF FREEDOM and STREET BOSS? It all boils
down to the gaps in the odds. What price are we willing to speculate
on FB? For me the odds have got to be high, because he has not
defeated any of the usual suspects, and I have no special insights
into the race that would prompt me to trust in a precise line.
Sorry to end on a bland note. I suppose I have survived all these
years by passing lots of races, even if they are Breeders' Cup events.
I will sleep on this, mull over everything in the morning, and only if
I have a vision will I send another post Saturday. Wish we all could
have been in a room and hashed it out together.
Otherwise, be sure to get the most out of your Breeders' Cup by
leaning where your insights are and bending away when you know nothing
more than the betting public.
Mark

CUP 2008: Report 5
Here we will walk through 3 races without handicapping them to death.
When I will do is  pick out selected angles and relate what I have
chosen as significant pieces of information.
THE MARATHON
Zappa stole a similar race in slow fractions and finds another
virtually paceless field. The speed, what there is of it, will come
from Booyah, a claimer. Under normal circumstances I'd speculate on
the lone speed above the class at a marathon distance, but this SA
surface has not been kind to early horses. Furthermore, the
overwhelming class of the field, Sixties Icon, is used to slow-paced
marathons, rating in mid-pack. If he had been a back-of-pack runner, I
might try to beat him. I have seen Dettori in such situations, and
he's keenly sensitive to pace. Zappa gets Gomez, who was aboard him
when he stole the race. Gomez is one for one with Zappa. The two
favorites look good for different reasons, and both have clever
riders. My plan is to sit out this race but enjoy what amounts to a
jockey duel. Cedar Mountain and Big Booster are not devoid of class
and could play some role in this event.
THE TURF SPRINT
In France we have a MULTI bet on this race, which is equivalent to a
4-horse quinella. I have been tracking down every possible angle. Here
are the ones I believe are most significant. These are not in a
preferential order.
First, both IDIOT PROOF and HERO'S REWARD have been schooled on the
hill, especially to get used to the strip where they cross over the
synth.
Regarding IDIOT PROOF, his loss to turf-sprint specialist GET FUNKY
was his first try in this genre. Second time could be an improvement,
especially with the painstaking schooling from his trainer. However,
he must contend with another need-to-lead horse, Mr. Nightlinger, who
stretches out a furlong and may find it difficult to last, especially
from the 14 post. Idiot Proof also has the habit of finishing ITM
without winning.
Intriguing is HEROS REWORD. It's Dale Capuano's first BC and many
folks are not aware of what a proficient trainer he is. The word is
that the turf was slightly soft in his last two losses, and Capuano
says his horse likes it real firm. He will get firm, for sure.
On the turf HR has more wins than places and more places than shows.
He's also a good traveler. But his rail post limits his options and
it's not a comfortable spot on this idiosyncratic course.
The grass is supposed to be the domain of the Euros, but in fact, Euro
sprinters are inferior to Euro routers. There are few graded sprints.
(If you own an American turf sprinter, you'd do well to ship and race
in Europe.) That said, we have two Euros in here with a chance, but
only because they are fillies. This year Euro fillies regularly
spanked the boys. FLEETING SPIRIT (Noseda-Murtagh) is 3 for 5 against
the boys and only 1 for 3 against other fillies. One of those losses
was to the sleek Natagora.
The other EURO filly in this race, of lesser stature is Fabre's ONLY
ANSWER, who has raced almost exclusively against the boys, with five
wins. But if we use the Euro sprint champ Marchand d'Or as a
yardstick, FLEETING SPIRIT will be more competitive.
CALIFORNIA FLAG hasjust won on this turf course and is one of the
overachievers in the field, having won races at 22-1 and 17-1. He's a
win type, with 8 4-0-1. DIABOLICAL, once managed to get within a
length and a half of Marchand d'Or, and comes back home for this one.
His dirt credentials are a rank above his turf record, but unlike the
two filly imports, this one hung out in the Group I crowd. The Grade 3
Morvich was the first turf-sprint loss for GET FUNKY, after having
accumulated 5 turf-sprint wins. Sadler says that it was 100 degrees
the day of GF's loss and the horse came back dehydrated. To give you
an idea of the complexity of this race, Watchmaker has GET FUNKY at
10-1 on his line, were Tufts has him at 9-2. Meanwhile, Watchmaker has
the 5-for-5 turf-sprint speedster at 3-1 while Tufts has him at 6-1.
One horse that is a must use in all exotics is TRUE TO TRADITION.
Trainer Scott Lake has been ITM at generous odds with his only two
previous BC horses. He's near perfect since he added blinkers, and
will be the first to come after the two leaders as the pass the synth
patch. He's 3-for-3 with rider Carmouche, and I would say that this
one, at 8-1 ML, may be the most interesting horse in a deeply
contentious race. He's a win type: from 15 grass races he's collected
7 wins, 3 places and no shows. Gotta use him.
THE DIRT MILE
In alphabetical order, ALBERTUS MAXIMUS improves with
surface-distance-trainer. LEWIS MICHAEL has the strategic rail at the
SA mile, has the Most Dangerous Trainer, and the right tactics. MAST
TRACK is one for one with T Baze, beat Go Between in the Hollywood
Gold Cup, and was done in in his last by the outside post and pace
duel. REBELLION is trouble prone, which means the 10 post will trigger
INEVITABLE problems. SURF CAT seems to be less than these but he is a
horse for course: 10 5-3-1 at SA. Canani's TWO STEP SALSA is 5 for 6
on the synth. Probable fave WELL ARMED is the current class horse. Of
all these, LEWIS MICHAEL has the most generous ML odds at 8-1, though
I suspect he will be lower than that on the tote.
I'll get back with one more report, either later today or Saturday
morning. I continue to believe that GOLDIKOVA stands above the rest in
the BC Mile.
MC

BC REPORT 4
BC TURF
Please follow this argument. Some of the main contenders in the Turf
are horses that have defeated Better Talk Now: Grand Couturier, Red
Rocks, and Out of Control, for example. The we have Better Talk Now
and horses that were defeated by Better Talk Now: Dancing Forever.
Curlin also defeated Better Talk Now on the turf in a place finish.
Because of that race, Curlin's stable decided he was not good enough
on the grass to race in the Arc de Triomphe.
But SOLDIER OF FORTUNE was good enough to race in the Arc and he
finished a workmanlike third place in a 16-horse field.
Soldier of Fortune usually needs space between races and only has 20
days since the Arc, but the Arc almost looks like a prep for the BC
Turf, since it was only his third race of the season.
The firm turf might be difficult for any Euro horse but the best of
Soldier's three races this year, at least his only winning one, came
on firm ground. The other Euro horses in this field all seem at least
a cut or two below S of F.
Only the lightly raced CONDUIT seems like the only Euro horse with a
margin for improvement, given that he is lightly raced and peaking.
The race he comes from, though Gr. 1, is not known for producing
winners in subsequent races at classic distances. But Conduit has a
sly fox of a trainer, Michael Stoute, who has won BC races before.
Still, SOLDIER OF FORTUNE must be considered the most likely winner in
this field.
THE CLASSIC
For Aidan O'Brien, the BC Classic seems like an afterthought. Why did
he race a declining miler, George Washington, in the Classic. Perhaps
just for the sport. This good sport has another declining miler here,
Henry the Navigator. He also has Duke of Marmalade, for whom the
Classic is a second choice, since he has his best shot in the Turf
with Soldier of Fortune. The Duke has had 7 races this season, and may
have already begun on the down escalator. He only has 20 days since
his last effort.
Raven's Pass seems like a horse I would like to root for. But he has
never been past the mile, and beat Henry the N when that one was
already headed in the wrong direction. I was tempted to take a stab
with RP but he has become the Wiseguy horse, made only 6-1 in the ML
and picked by Beyer.
Curlin, at such low odds, also raises questions. We can excuse him for
defeating such poor fields of late. Wanderin Boy and AP Arrow would
not come near this level. But he was really prepping for this one big
race. Given the post, the new surface and the questionable level of
his recent races, the low odds are not warranted. If he really earned
a 111 Beyer in his last race, then it means Wanderin Boy got a 110. No
way.
That leaves us with with Go Between a synth specialist, and Casino
Drive. Both look like potential exotic inclusions, and both could win,
but Go Between looks more like an in-the-money horse and Casino Drive
does not present us with enough evidence of his true potential. If I
decide to try to beat Curlin out of the exacta, I could use both of
these.
After battling with the frustration of picking three foreign horses in
other races only to find that they are probable favorites, I have
decided here to make my best-probable-overlay the Frankel horse:
CHAMPS ELYSEES.
First read my arguments and decide if I have gone nuts from over-handicapping.
This horse is the full brother to two BC winners, Banks Hill and
Intercontinental. He has had only one race off the turf, and that was
the SA Handicap on a synthetic surface. You need to watch this race
several times to believe it. He's so far behind that he's off the
monitor for much of the race. Yes, he finished nearly 3 lengths behind
today's rival Go Between but my eyes tell me he spotted the field 10
lengths or so. Near the end you have a glimpse of how he was making up
ground, tons of it. In fact, his best Beyer fig is precisely his race
on the synth surface! Look at the race and estimate how many Beyer
points you can add to his 105 because of the poor start.
I know that Gomez has gotten off this horse, and could win the race,
but both the pedigree and surface factors tell me that his odds will
be much more generous than fair price. Is he a most-likely winner? I'm
not sure, but for me this is the overlay in the race.
Now don't follow me blindly. Re-read the arguments and judge them for
yourself. Is Cramer mad or is he reasonable?
MC
More to come.