Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Following my own line instructions in the Forego, I bet my key horse A Huevo to win, and keyed him in the trifectas. Needless to say, I lost. With a small investment, I got it all back, but nothing more, by using Clock Stopper as a partial backwheel horse in the exacta, in respect to my posted words: "finds a way to just miss. Backwheel anyone? Has the aura of second place ..."
One day I will have the guts to make the backwheel my main bet, which would have happened if A Huevo had gone off at below my required 6-1.
For the Pennsylvania Derby, I had to respond to two crucial questions:
First, does my personal odds line come up with something different from the Morning Line. My answer was "No".
Second, can I eliminate at least half the field. Answer: also "no".
This means that I am obligated to give you a courageous opinion on this race: that I will pass it. "Courageous" because, at the time when subscription renewals are open, I know that the best way to lose a subscriber is to recommend passing a race. Most folks would rather I recommend a hopeless bomb than a pass. So I am guaranteed the disappointment of many readers. But what choice do I have, when my first contender is the ML fave, my second contender is the ML second choice and my third contender is the ML third choice?
I have to admit it. No major discoveries here.
I was first attracted to this race because it's the Derby B team, and with A team defections, a possible new kid on the block could emerge from this race as a possible A team candidate. So I projected.
LOVE OF MONEY? Dutrow's a great trainer, but a 6-length win in the slop at alw nw1 is not a great indicator, pro or con. The 25% Dutrow is only a 17 percent winner in stakes, and a thorough flat bet loss. The breeding says maybe 1 1/6 but not necessarily 1 1/8. This is an "if" candidate that cannot be completely tossed, but cannot be projected. In a B-team field with no real A-team candidates, this is the mystery horse. In a race without much route speed at all, we have a sprint speed horse going long. Always a danger.
TAPIT? Normally the "entrapped epiglottis" angle would be an automatic bet. But he's the ML favorite and he's got the horrendous 12 post. I could love him, but not at low odds.
POLLARD'S VISION? Would anyone be surprised if Todd Pletcher won another stakes race? J.R. is flying in from Saratoga especially to ride this horse.
MY SNOOKIE'S BOY? He has crowd favorite Elliott, from the rail, and was oh so close in the Haskell, at 20-1, an overachiever. No surprise if he won it.
MASTER DAVID? Another Frankel layoff horse with a beautiful workout on 23Aug that suggest he is ready to fire. He would have to be an improved horse over when he could not defeat Tapit with a perfect trip. He's older, more mature, and gets blinkers. Not out of it.
SWINGFORTHEFENCES? Reportedly bled through the L in the Haskell. He was near Tapit and Master David but improved since then (speed ratings up; beat some horses that he lost to before). Not out of it.
SEPARATO? A double Big Win horse, completely reborn with his new stable, local horse, 20 percent trainer, needs a huge pace up front, and may not get it. The trainer said he'd be thrilled with a finish in the top 4. I can visualize this one getting into the tri at a decent price for a hot trainer.
SONG OF THE SWORD? Even this horse, one that I have essentially eliminated, has a chance. His only two bad races were when completely overmatched. Won when fresh as a first-time-starter, so coming back after a layoff is a positive attribute. He was within 3 lengths of Pollard's Vision in the Illinois Derby after being steadied on the first turn. Great works. Has hot rider. I would say to bet this horse automatically when they move to the Aqueduct inner dirt course.
There are still other horses that can't be eliminated for various reasons, and as sometimes happens, when I go deep, I do not go deep enough.
In summary, the epiglottis horse Tapit's odds figure to be too low from the outside post, and good info loses its power when everyone has it.
As I have said before, a winning horseplayer may be like a guerrilla warrior, unable to defeat a standing army, but capable of descending from the hills to win important battles when picking his own spot. In this race, I feel as if I am facing a standing army.
I know, you're all shouting, "Cramer is a bum" but I'm passing this race. Don't shout too loud or you might get an entrapped epiglottis. It's great to know there will be many other races to come. The Arc de Triomphe is next on our agenda, and I guarantee to have info on that one that no one else has.