Mark Cramer
C & X Report

This is part two of the Thursday report. Part one with most of the good stuff is below. Check Friday for another report.
mc
DISTAFF
I have a number of horses circled, the favorite is reasonably legit, and this is not the type of race I can play with any confidence.
JUVENILE FILLY
There are three Big Win horses in this race, plus others with a potential future. I’m not good at projecting winners in this type of race and will stay out.
JUVENILE
We have a horse to beat, in FIRST SAMURAI, and there’s a risk in playing against him. The dam of IVAN DENISOVICH is none other than former Distaff winner Hollywood Wildcat. PRIVATE VOW has a Big Win credential at Belmont, and SORCERER’S STONE is another Big Win horse. Beware of SET ALIGHT, the French shipper with good dirt breeding who has the Euro early speed angle: in other words, ships from races against the bias to a speed favoring country.
mc

Post 3
BC F&M
You can make a case for just about every horse in this race. The Megahertz generation of Americans do not stand out, but neither do the Euros, and favorite Ouija Board is suspect after a long season of injuries.
We’ve already given angles on INTERCONTENTAL (full sis to Banks Hill) and FILM MAKER (pattern match with last year’s F&M). ANGARA is another potential longshot. If you exclude the two decent races vs the boys, with Stevens aboard she is 3 for 6, and that includes one race she lost by ½ after being shut off in the stretch. Stevens was not aboard for the Flower Bowl. FAVORABLE TERMS rates a chance just because she’s a Euro filly trained by the crafty Stoute. Fallon won a FT, and also was 4 for 4 on Ouija Board, and yet he finds himself on MONA LISA, who improved in the Prix de l’Opera, finishing ahead of a filly that has raced well against some of the best boys. Did have some significant traffic trouble in the Beverly D. In that race, SUNDROP lacked room in the stretch. She gets Dettori (3 for 4 on her) for the Godolphin stable and is the longest shot on the board. This race could be decided by the ride. Dettori is the best in the world, but sometimes the worst. Fallon is currently the most dependable grass rider in the world. And Bailey will be on the favorite, OUIJA BOARD. I have no simple solution for this race. The above angles are all interesting but others in the field also have assets.
THE SPRINT
When I have crisp, sharp angles on four or five horses, I usually end up keying the wrong one. This race is just as perplexing as the F&M. Both are probably worth an investment, for the simple reason that the favorites are vulnerable. I’ve already given angles on BATTLE WON, LIFESTYLE (once a monster, then with a problem, problem solved, brilliant work, and chance to redeem), SILVER TRAIN (two Big Wins), and dependable WILDCAT HEIR (though the stable was thwarted in it’s intent on a prep race for this horse). As with the F&M, the favorite is vulnerable but not a false fave, and can win, making things more complicated. LOST IN THE FOG has broken three different track records, so it makes no difference if the horses behind him were not world beaters. However, FOG’s odds are too low. My “Horse of the Day-Thursday but not necessarily Saturday” for this race is IMPERIALISM. If his stable would read what I say about this horse, they would hire me as the horse’s lawyer. Essentially, IMPERIALISM is an OVERACHIEVER, and specifically overachieves when Espinoza rides. With Espinoza he’s won at 14-1, 7-1 and 6-1. He once finished second by a nose to RHT. He beat the eventual Vosburgh winner by more than 3 lengths. And in his last race, a route, he made a bold sprint move before flattening out. Nevertheless, his times are not fast enough, unless the race is run at a blistering pace, and he catches ‘em. He was three ticks from the 7f track record at Del Mar.
That’s quite a menu, and others have arguments.
TURF: I still believe in SHIROCCO and BAGO as keys, and MILE: I’m sticking with VALIXIR in spite of the outside post.
CLASSIC
ROCK HARD TEN is still the use horse, even though he’s not proven as a shipper. SAINT LIAM has never won at this distance, and drew the 13. In his four efforts from the far outside, he’s never been in the money, and failed from post 11 versus RHT. The other horse I’m interested in is STARCRAFT. He’s coming off victories in two of the classiest races in the world, has speed, has shown a capability to get a mile and a quarter (he’s won an Aussie grade I at a mile and a half), and his people say he will like the dirt. Unfortunately, he drew post 14. When he lost to Oratorio, he was carrying 11 pounds more than his rival.
please check one separate section of this post
mc