Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Here's my fourth report. It may be the last, but if I receive any good
info, I might still send one more post, either later tonight or
tomorrow morning. Hope you can check your e-mail at 9:15 your time.
Mark

Report 4
CLAIMING CROWN JEWEL
Five of nine Jewel winners have come from California. I tried to
eliminate one of the two California competitors, FIGHT ON (12-1 ML),
but I couldn't do it.
Let's look horse by horse.
CATMANTOO. He lost twice at the 35,000 level (horse must have raced at
least once 35k or less to qualify). Since those two losses, he hasn't
won another. Trainer is 9% and big flat-bet roi loser and rider is
11%. Toss.
COYOTESHIGHESTCALL. Trained by a previous Jewel winner, Scott Lake,
and well-regarded in the press box as the 7/2 ML fave, I'm going to
TOSS from the win
because he's now been a beaten favorite three consecutive times. He's
fast, and could catch a piece.
R CLEAR VICTORY's last win was a slow-paced wire-to-wire affair.
Several horses have better early speed than he does, so I'm bypassing
this one. TOSS.
STERLING HEAT. Trainer Michael Maker won three of seven in last year's
Claiming Crown but this horse has lost to lesser horses in the past
and was beaten fair and square by Stratostar, another horse in this
field. This horse has just lost two races at 50,000 in 5-horse fields.
The two California horses have won at 50k. TOSS.
CANELA. Another Michael Maker horse with a serious flaw; he's a
need-to-lead horse. He simply doesn't pass horses. Judging by the
fractions, there's at least one other horse in here, and probably two
that will be out there in front of Canela. TOSS.
That leaves four horses.
Here's where it gets tough. The horse from the minor league tracks,
WON AWESOME DUDE, has the fastest times: from places like Delaware and
Fair Grounds. Then there's STRATOSTAR, a Kenneth McPeek horse going
from turf to dirt. The turf-to-dirt stat on McPeak is 26% wins and a
positive roi of $2.29 for each $2. The horse itself has shows one win
turf-to-dirt (same distance as today's race) and another win turf to
synthetic. Even on grass, this horse is infallible at the 1 1/8
distance. His only Beyer fig that measures up to Won Awesome Dude's
best was also STRATOSTAT's only dirt race: 99.
Then there is Mike Mitchell's SoCal horse, SENSATIONAL SCORE, the one
that pops off the page: 3 wins in 4 tries this year, two of them after
a typically successful big claim by Mitchell. This horse seems to be
getting better, but all of his recent wins are on the synthetic
surface. Finally there's the one I wanted to eliminate: Eddie Truman's
FIGHT ON. Truman has not been successful with first time claims, but
this won is a reclaim, and for the same owners, so Truman has already
won twice with the horse, both times with double figure payoffs. For
Truman the horse won for 20,000, and then for 32,000. They lost him at
40k. For the next trainer, he won at 50,000. He was claimed back for
50 by Truman. He's the speed of the speed here, and the other speed is
need-to-lead. But he's never gone this far. He's handled a mile and 70
yards. He can steal the Jewel.
So which of these four is my key?
Tough call. Judging by the morning line odds, all other things equal,
STRATOSTAT at 10-1 and FIGHT ON at 12-1 are more attractive than the
other two that figure to have much lower odds.
So I've just provided some information. You couple it with your own analysis.
Meanwhile, the 5-horse GLASS SLIPPER looks like a pass to me. I prefer
a 9-horse field where I can eliminate 5 over a 5-horse field where I'm
lucky if I can eliminate a single horse. It is a good race to watch.
You have a front runner that should be too cheap but that has it her
way and can last. You have a Scott Lake horse that's a winning machine
and deserves to be favored. You have 4% trainer with a supplemented
horse that's favored in the pressbox consensus, and you have
flat-bet-profit trainer Amoss with a deep closer who the best horse in
the field but will find it tough to get up in time.
Fun to watch.
You now have all the analysis. If I receive any good late information,
I'll send another report. Otherwise, this is the last.
Sorry I've been so serious. Claiming Crown is never easy. But it's one
more example of why no other game in the world can rival what we have
here. Funny, at first glance of all the races, I told myself, "You
gotta put the Mitchell horse on top. It's easy. It's Mike Mitchell
improving a horse."
But then I got involved with handicapping, the greatest drug in the
world. If Mitchell wins, I promise I will not say, "I shoulda …"
Besides, we can use him in the exotics.
MC
PS. Check this at about 12:30 Eastern time tomorrow, just in case. I
reserve the right to sleep, dream, and wake up with a new idea.