Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BREEDERS' CUP 2006
C&X Stakes Weekend
Dear readers,
This is the first of several postings on this year's Breeders' Cup. Please do not forget to review this first message, since I cannot repeat everything each time. Also, please remember that you are thinking horseplayers and this is not a tout sheet. I try to provide objective information that can add to your own handicapping. Yes, I also give my opinions because that's what racing is about.
THIS SLICING
Some of my best analysis of late has been "thin slicing", where I find one particular factor that I feel towers above the rest. That is how, for example, we came up with Cash Included at 29.40 at Oak Tree, in the last C&X Stakes Weekend on Arc weekend.
F&M TURF: SATWA QUEEN
The thin but sharp slice that has first emerged is SATWA QUEEN. Yes, there is, first and foremost, Ouija Board, as well as Wait a While, Germance, and other possible winners. But for me, all the arguments combined for these other fillies and mares do not equal the one argument I have for SATWA QUEEN (SQ).
Please follow my reasoning. SQ just finished a close second to MANDESHA in the big Prix de l'Opera. Let's look at how she did it, and who is Mandesha. On the big weekend of prep races for the ARC, Mandesha won the Prix Vermeille. She won a whole 4 seconds faster than the big boys, Shirocco, Hurricane Run and Pride. She also was about 3 seconds faster that Rail Link, the eventual winner of the ARC.
My feeling after those preps was that Mandesha could win the Arc and should have been supplemented for 80,000. But the Aga Khan, reasoning that his filly would race one more year and try the Arc in 2007, decided to place her in a much easier spot, the Prix de l'Opera, against fillies and mares. Cristophe Soumillion confirmed my feelings. He had ridden the three prep winners, Shirocco, Rail Link and Mandesha, and he said that if he had a choice for the Arc, he'd choose Mandesha.
I loved Mandesha in the Prix de l'Opera, and thought she would romp, even though she was up against the mighty Alexandrova.
Partways in the l-o-n-g stretch, it looked as if Mandesha would put away the leader, none other than SATWA QUEEN. But SQ dug in and battled courageously. I was standing on the rail, praying for SQ to quit. On the contrary, SQ looked tough. Finally, the great Mandesha prevailed, but my great impression was that SQ was really an improving filly with a tremendous future.
Later I learned that SQ had been pointed to the F&M. Her trainer is a lay-low type of guy with a high win percentage in France. The fact that he's unknown in the USA will boost the odds on SATWA QUEEN.
Sure Ouija Board is a great mare. But consider that she lost by a neck to Irridescence, a filly that finished 4 lengths behind SATWA QUEEN in the Opera. Granted, this game is now who-beat-who, and it depends where each horse is in its performance cycle. But the odds differential between OB and SQ will be significant.
For me, SATWA QUEEN is a true value wager. If the surface moistens, OB may not like it. SQ would move up, but can handle any surface condition.
THE SPRINT
No opinion yet. However, I suspect that BORDONARO'S 119 Beyer will be over-rated by the players. That's because THOR'S ECHO earned a 116 in the same race, and TE was going into that race off 7 straight losses. TE's 116 was 11 Beyer points better than his other best lifetime Beyer of 105, and most of his races have been sub-100.
I also believe that The Forego at Saratoga will be an over-rated race and that all the horses from that field can be downgraded in one's handicapping. POMEROY earned a 107 that day, but all of his best races and high Beyers have been at Saratoga. The Forego finished in 1:23.1 on 2Sep, with a minus 14 DRF variant.
On 27Aug, same track and same distance, the filly DUBAI ESCAPADE won by 8 1/2 in 1:23 flat, and the DRF variant that day was minus 22 over a strip labeled "good".
DUBAI ESCAPADE thus becomes a challenger, though she looks like a need-to-lead horse and will have to put away several others, including Bordonaro.
This makes the probable favorite, HENNY HUGHES, a presser, look especially good. This is a near perfect horse, 3 for 3 at the distance, and wins by huge margins.
Do not discard TOO MUCH BLING. SIREN LURE reportedly looked terrible in a workout, so you should check the daily DRF reports.
Stay tuned for more, probably Weds.