Mark Cramer
C & X Report

Pan American Handicap

QUEST STAR will get action, but he is not the top choice in the consensus. He has won this same race in 2003 and 2004. On each of those occasions, he prepped in the GP BC Handicap. I went back to his lifetime pps and discovered that his previous preps leading to wins in the Pan American "look" much better than the one on 6Mar05. But consider that he can win this race with fractions of 50 and 115 and that, in his prep, he was going much too fast too early while wide after having had to leave from the 10-hole. I always like to see the trainer comment on such situations. Walden has sounded optimistic, clearly noting that the last race was a prep. Walden has 31 percent wins on second after layoff. There may be two horses here that will well leave faster than the fractions needed by QUEST STAR. But QUEST STAR has shown he can press and does not need to lead. Look at his earnings for the distance/turf and compare with the others.


The likely favorite, GIGLI, has never won in the USA.

DEPUTY LAD is the mystery horse that could improve now that he's in the Mitchell barn and the stretchout may do him well, as he has the type of early speed that can take 'em long in a race that has little early pace. In the end, QUEST STAR has a class edge and the pattern match in his favor.


Orchid Handicap
Hmm, paceless field with no legit front runner, at distance where horses can steal it. Ellieonthemarch won her last as a front runner, but fractions were 52 and 117.1. Look one race before that and you'll see that BRIVIESCA was actually ahead of her and stayed ahead of her.
BRIVIESCA then entered the grade III Very One Handicap from the 10 post and made one huge mid-race move to capture the lead and then hang. In that same race, HONEY RIDER was passed by BRIVIESCA but then, after biding her time along the race, inherited the lead, as BRIVIESCA naturally paid for her bold efforts.
SNOWDROPS won a grade III as well, but is clearly not the type to grab a lead in a slow pace field, and that's why she lost her next at Tampa Bay when 7/10 odds.
If BRIVIESCA can get a get decent early position from the 7-hole and then race evenly while pressing whoever is in front, she can control the pace and time her move better. 
BRIVIESCA, 2 for 3 at this marathon distance, wins this jockey race if Bailey gets him in position early so that Velasquez cannot outsmart him.
PS. Remember that this is the season for the flat-bet-profit angle:
Maiden special weight horse as 2YO has raced NO MORE than two times. Coming back after a layoff as a 3YO, entered in md sp wt. 3YO Beyers of other horses will look faster than 2YO Beyers of the horse we are considering. Naturally you can project a big Beyer improve from 2YO figs, something the crowd doesn't see. Demand at least a 12 percent trainer overall, and one who has a better stat with lay-1.



The Florida Derby
HIGH FLY. 2-1. Need 3-1. Zito. Most likely winner, but not a shoe-in.

NOBLE CAUSEWAY. 3-1. Need 4-1. Zito. Late bloomer, has a right to improve. I love this sire. No telling how good this horse can be.

VICARAGE. 7-2. Need 5-1. Pletcher. Overachiever in last, will not allow High Fly to be the lone presser behind B.B. Best. Can he get 1 1/8? His dad won this race in 1999. Otherwise, there are some legit question marks about his stamina pedigree. But, Vicarage's best Beyer fig was also his longest race. 

That accounts for 80 percent of probabilities. A number of other horses in this field are lightly-raced and have a right improve, including the maiden, Papi Chullo.

On the eve of the 1999 Fla Derby, which would be won by the daddy of VICARAGE, Vicar, the headline in Newsweek was: "Zito has two chances at the Florida Derby".

Could history repeat itself? Prior to this race, Zito has commented: "Just running well in the Florida Derby is pretty significant when you see the way the horses have run afterwards. Maybe, subconsciously, I look at it as a means to an end."
This may be a prep race for the two Zito horses, though each of them has a chance to win. For Vicarage, this is his race, for his pedigree does not look kindly on 1 1/4 in the Derby. The stable of Vicarage would have wished to give him an extra week of rest.