Mark Cramer
C & X Report

C&X REPORT
PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE UPDATE:
SUDDENLY WE HAVE A CONTENTIOUS RACE WITH LEGIT LONGSHOTS
filed by Mark Cramer
With about two weeks to go before the Arc, suddenly the dynamics of the race have changed.
It almost looks like a typical BC Classic, for the favorites are defecting.
The pre-race fave, DOYEN, ran an unbelievably bad prep race in the Irish Champion Stakes, seventh of eight starters. Said Simon Crisford, Godolphin spokesman: "Doyen ran very flat...I would expect he is due for a rest and will not be able to run in the Arc de Triomphe". "I asked him to quicken and he couldn't," said Dettori.
Another probable defection is the filly who won the French Oaks, LATICE. Stretching to a mile and a fourth for the first time, as the undefeated favorite, Lattice looked like the winner in the stretch but came up against the invisible wall of distance pedigree. "She just can't get the distance," explained rider Soumillion.
Where is McPeek and Hard Buck?
McPeek's Hard Buck had defeated the best at Ascot when finishing second behind a Doyen who was still at his top at the time. McPeek decided to not enter the Arc. Now, he may be wondering. This year, an American horse could have had a chance. The British race book favorite, at this writing, is a horse we all know, SULAMANI. American horses have run capably against Sulamani. He's like the second-team horse of Godolphin. He knows the Arc and can win. But he's far from a lock. Even with Dettori, if his odds are low, he becomes a bet-against.
So, in a race in which the favorite has historically won about 40 percent of the time, there will probably be no standout fave. The French prep races on September 12 did little to resolve the delightful handicapping dilemma.
The filly race, the Prix Vermeille, was finished only 1/10 of a second slower than the males. The winner, the Team Valor horse SWEET DREAM, was deservedly 37-1 if you'd read the pps. The second horse was 44-1. And the third finisher, PRIDE, was 40-1, when taking up twice. "She would have won," said rider Davy Bonilla.
The Prix Niel for males was won by VALIXIR, a Fabre horse that would have been Stevens' mount had he remained in France. The Lagardère stable says he will be at his peak for the Arc. He only won by a headbob, and looked all out, but his rider Eric Legrix said that "he had the means to win by much more than his winning margin indicates, if he had not lost his concentration."
The second place finisher, PROSPECT PARK, has finished second versus the best, but seems like a hanger. The big disappointment was BAGO, a length and a nose back. Rider Gillet says that BAGO just needs to toughen up.
Behind SULAMANI at 9/2 are:
GREY SWALLOW, Irish Derby winner, 6-1
VALIXIR, 8-1
NORTH LIGHT, the Stoute winner of the Epsom Derby, also 8-1
VALLEE ENCHANTEE, the Lellouche filly who was scratched from the Vermeille because of a cough: 8-1
OUIJA BOARD, winner of the Epsom Oaks, who chose a different prep instead of the Vermeille,
for Brit trainer Dunlop, who will probably choose the slightly shorter Prix de l'Opera on Arc day and end up facing LATICE.
There are six of seven other worthy challengers, including the opportunistic WARRSAN at 8-1.
PRIX DE L'OPERA. You probably will not receive a simulcast of the Prix de l'Opera, but with a very talented field, you should take this race seriously as a primary prep for the BC Fillies &Mares. C&X will report on this race as well as the Arc.
Stay tuned.