Mark Cramer
C & X Report

PS
How strange. Why did I leave out Greeley's Galaxy from the previous list? Add this horse into the mix.
GREELEY'S GALAXY. (118, Haw). Very unflattering workout reports for his two works at CD. However, given that most of big preps had weak fields, Illinois Derby that produced War Emblem must be considered. Another negative is that this horse has only 4 career races. However, Beyer fig and DRF speed rating + variant coincide. It was a very fast race, one tick off the track record.
mc

May 5, Post 2
I've decided to save my exotic recommendations for a third post. Here I give you the pros and cons of the horses still being considered. If you have a truly unusual and OBJECTIVE insight about anyDerby horse and wish to engage interactively with C&X audience, you can e-mail me at Cramerjazz@aol.com. But please, ONLY if you've made a unique hard-data discovery you wish to communicate with C&X readers, since my e-mail box is overwhelmed during Triple Crown time.
My notes are in order of program number and do not reflect my final ranking. Just for fun, I'm noting the overlooked Daily Racing Form speed rating plus variant next to each horse. GP means that horse has no rating because he raced at Gulfstream.
SUN KING. (107, Tampa; 87, Keeneland) He beat Survivalist, a horse that runs 'em all alike, by nearly 6. Bellamy beat the same horse by more than 17. Sun King is eligible to turn it around after a non-descript Blue Grass.
NOBLE CAUSEWAY. (GP) Eligible for big jump in numbers, based on fact that he was still green in the Fla Derby. But High Fly, the horse that beat him, was not being pushed at the end. Asset is the great class-distance pedigree "potential" of Giant's Causeway, and the fact that red-hot Gary Stevens is aboard. NC has never won a stakes race.
COIN SILVER. (113, Keeneland. Looks good "if" that 29 variant is correct.???) Here's another horse eligible for the required move-up. Big asset is that he just learned to rate and the fact that the inspired rider Patrick Valenzuela is aboard. This race may be too soon in Coin Silver's maturing process.
HIGH LIMIT. (90, Keeneland, 105, FG) Biggest sign of possible improvement is fine work in company of Ghostzapper and attempt in Blue Grass to pass horses (he passed one). His Blue Grass fraction was 1:10.2 compared to Afleet Alex's 1:12.3 in the Arkansas Derby, but still, not good to see that HL finished out so slowly in Blue Grass, implying that he will be compromised by the sprint speed he faces in the Derby. Another negative is fact that his LaDerby win turned out to be a slow-paced walkaway against a weak field. Those behind him: Vicarage came back to do nothing and Storm Surge was third by 7 in the Lexington.
HIGH FLY. (GP) Nearly faultless horse, not a need-to-lead type, not overworked in Fla Derby. Negative is the fact that he's so steady at a similar level that you wonder if he can improve, as the Derby would require. Not overused in Fla Derby, suggesting a margin for improvement.
AFLEET ALEX. (110, OP) His adjusted speed fig for BC Juvenile, based on trip, is better than the horse that beat him, Wilko. I suppose we should not fault him too much for beating a very mediocre Arkansas Derby field, since he won by daylight. He has an inexperienced rider and distance pedigree is suspect.
WILKO. (96, SA; 94, LS) No BC Juvy winner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. He's never raced in blazing fast times. But he is capable of a peak performance, has class, has nice sire in Awesome Again. Poor performance in SA Derby explained by fact that he was late in training due to an injury.
BANDINI. (96, Keeneland, which parallels Beyer's low estimation of this race) Had it all his own way in Blue Grass, stalking speed duel and then passing horses that were backing up. Classy breeding but suspect because of slow closing time in BG. Nevertheless, his win margins cannot be faulted, and he was gaining on High Fly in the Fountain of Youth.
BELLAMY ROAD. (115, AQU) Already my top pick at 3/2, please note that he defeated Scrappy T by 18 in the Wood and Scrappy T came back to defeat Park Avenue Ball and BB Best, two Florida Derby runners, making the Wood at least as high a level race as Fla Derby. Also, Bellamy Road's run past the finish line in the Wood looked like a horse that wanted to keep on running.
DON'T GET MAD. (108, CD) Beat poor field in the Derby Trial a week ago. I've retained him only because he looks very much like a Churchill Downs horse for course.
I have tried to give you objective info, so that you may weigh the pros and cons within your own scheme of analysis.
Stay tuned.
mc

Dear readers,
>First let me announce that C&X 20 will not be finished until after the Derby,
>since I wanted to wait so that I'd be able to include comments on the Derby.
>Now for the Kentucky Derby, Post 1 of 2.
>As much as I'd like to play "beat the favorite", I cannot get past Bellamy
>Road.
>Horses with the biggest move-ups in speed fig in the prep race prior to the
>Derby have always won: War Emblem, Charismatic, Funny Cide, Silver Charm. With
>4 weeks off, a bounce for Bellamy Road is purely theoretical and unlikely.
>Give him 20 percent chance to bounce.
>Yes, there's much early speed in the race, but BR has already shown he can
>pass horses, in his maiden race (when horses have usually not learned to pass).
>Only a 20 percent chance that he gets done in by a duel.
>As for a big speed move-up by another horse, it's possible, but probably not
>enough to outrun Bellamy Road. Let's say 20 percent chance of this happening.
>Therefore, you take the fastest horse by far, give him 100 percentage points,
>and subtract the above possible negative scenarios: 60 points off. That
>leaves Belamy Road with a 40 percent chance to win, converting into 3/2 odds. That
>is a reasonable line.
>Eliminations:
>Sort It Out: fastest race is not enough.
>Andromeda's Hero: won at Tampa and Crc, in slow races.
>Flower Alley: 8 lengths back in one of the poorest prep fields, the Arkansas
>Derby, based on the average speed/class ratings of its entrants.
>Greater Good: ditto.
>Giacomo: comes from slow SA Derby and has only won a maiden race.
>Spanish Chestnut: entered as a rabbit.
>Closing Argument: pedigree says will run out of gas.
>Going Wild: Can't keep up with speed, but can't run any other way.
>Buzzard's Bay: slow win in SA Derby, trainer's SA Derby winners disappointed
>in last two Derbies.
>Stay tuned for my exotic inclusions on the next post.
>Mark