Mark Cramer
C & X Report

KENTUCKY DERBY DELIRIUM
Having picked the last three Triple Crown winners on top at this C&X
website, I am trying to make sure I will not be stricken by the Dutrow
invincibility complex.
MOST LIKELY WINNER
I was struck that Andrew Beyer eliminated Colonel John because he was
trying the dirt for the first time. Gayego had a career best race when
shipping from Santa Anita to the real dirt for the first time, in the
Arkansas Derby. Beyer's comment inspired me to look back at Colonel
John. If the Gayego pattern match works (SA to eastern dirt) then
Colonel John is sitting on a career best race. The evidence favors
this pattern match, since CJ worked in 57.4 breezing, and with no
urging, at Churchill, best of 62 works that day.
CJ's trainer Eoin Harty has been there done that as Baffert's
assistant, saddling a couple of Kentucky Derby winners. He's won 27%
of his graded stakes with a $3.07 return for each $2 bet. Big Brown is
a legit contender, as I explained in the previous post, but he's
outside of Gayego and has to go. Speed horse Bob Black Jack is farther
inside. Big Brown could end up as the speed of the speed, if the
others are need-to-lead. But he'll have better horses coming at him
than Smooth Air in the Fla Derby, who had never won a route.
Most likely winner: COLONEL JOHN
EXOTIC INCLUSIONS
Z FORTUNE has been outfinished twice, once by Gayego and before that
by Pyro. He seems like a get-the-job-done opportunistic horse who,
after the others have done battle with each other can simply be there.
He survived a 4-wide on the first turn in his last race and still went
wide again on the second turn.
DENIS OF CORK has been working well at Churchill three consecutive
times and also won his maiden at Churchill: potential horse for
course. In the last post, in which I outlined the DRF speed ratings
plus track variants, I neglected to go back one race for this horse,
the Southwest, a mile, where his rating was 94 + 24 = 118. That puts
him on top. He was already working at CD when he shipped to Illinois
for a real clunker, but it was a speed favoring track, and he was
closer than usual to the pace early on. I rewatched the race, and he
did not look good. That was a lay-1. Trainer moves 'em up second after
layoff.
IN THE MIX
I've already mentioned why I can comfortably keep BIG BROWN in the mix
and would not be surprised if he wins. He is, after all, the best
horse in the race. His hoof problems are reputedly solved, so he might
even be better than in the Fla Derby. That's scary. Remember that Big
Brown was the first horse to win from the far outside on the
refurbished GP.
I've rethought the Pyro dilemma. If I could probably excuse him for
his non-race in the Bluegrass on polytrack, I was not so sure about
his lower speed ratings at the Fairgrounds. I have rewatched those two
races and he looked like a truly dominating horse. He and Gayego have
both defeated Z Fortune, which suggests that the Pyro's Louisiana
speed ratings may be listed lower than they should be. It takes a
dominating horse to win the Derby and on his best day, PYRO can blow
by them. I have not placed Pyro higher in my selections because he's
become the "wiseguy" pick, and the buzz horse does not usually do
well.
GAYEGO remains in the mix. Looked beautiful in the "Ark" de Triomphe!
However, he has not looked great in his morning workouts, and there
exists a possibility that he peaked in Arkansas. He too must deal with
the far outside.
This is a real horse race.
On Preakness day, I will do at least two races. See you then.
Just in case I receive late information, I may post one more time,
though it's unlikely. You should recheck.
And of course!!!: if you feel strongly about your horse, do not allow
yourself to be touted off it. This is a participatory game in which we
are individually and actively involved. Many a C&X reader has been
right when I have been wrong.
Mark