Mark Cramer
C & X Report

STAKES WEEKEND
CLAIMING CROWN 2006
Once more we have a thrilling set of races on this great day. I'll restrict my comments here to my handicapping of the races, and you may back up the information by reading my Barn Notes at www.canterburypark.com
The first two legs of the Claiming Crown, Race 4 (the Iron Horse) and Race 5 (the Glass Slipper0 have a similar scenario. Scott Lake has two potentially lone front runners (Barn Notes has details on trainer interviews). Normally I try to beat such obvious horses. But Lake's determination has won my admiration. Once the dominant Claiming Crown trainer, Lake is riding an 0 for 11 streak. He went the extra nine yards with the router Distinct Vision (7 straight wins) and the sprinter Funny Woman (10 for 22 lifetime on the dirt at this distance).
Remembering that last year his horses did not adapt to the track, he purposely made the trip over here to give these two horses a prep. If you notice a decline in Thoroughgraph speed fig for each of these two in their wire to wire Canterbury prep wins, it's because they didn't want to save their horses for the big day. That's their explanation.
So these horses cannot be tossed. In Race 5, the California shipper Da Svedonya, can win this race on her best day, but her come from behind running style will not favor her here.
Moving on to the Sixth Race, the Rapid Transit, we have the extremely fast Lake horse, Must Win Soon (107.4 track record at Philly) versus Benny Feliciano's Crafty Schemer. These two trainers have been friendly rivals before, and Feliciano once defeated a Lake favorite in a CC race. I talked with Feliciano and have never seen anyone as serenely confident of his horses as this guy. Lake told me that he recognized that Crafty Schemer is the horse to beat, and he also noted that Must Win Soon's 107.4 was over a very fast strip. For what it's worth, Thoroughgraph has an equal rating for the best race of each of these two rivals. In the Canterbury program, I went with a third horse in this race, knowing that if I chose either one of the two faves, the other one would win anyway.
I went with IRON ROGUE as a key horse, at 6-1 in the ML. Reasons. (1) two of his races are nearly as fast as those of the faves; (2) he has the highest earnings per race on dirt, which translates into the highest class rating; (3) his trainer, Thomas Tomillo, has had three Claiming Crown races, winning one and second in another. Tomillo had not yet arrived in the barn, so I couldn't track him down. If the other two finish first-second in the exacta, it's ho hum time, but if Iron Rogue can get into the first or second slot, the share value goes up. Iron Rogue comes from Arlington, which I feel is a notch above Philadelphia and Maryland.
The Seventh Race is the TIARA for Fillies and Mares. I could only eliminate one horse but one other seems to outclass and outrun the others. That's the favorite, Strong Faith. I had a long discussion with Stong Faith's trainer John Martin, and he is concerned about the outside post position, but he'll bring in Roberto Gonzalez to ride, and RG knows Cby. The word from local trainers is that when the rail is at zero, post is less of a factor.
STRONG FAITH's only loss in his last 5 races was in a Grade 3. Martin says that this mare has gotten so much better since he's taught her to relax. The Lake stable is not really high on their Moorebella but they think she's got a shot. The "different horse" is Sadler's Spy Aly, and one wonders what the Pletcher horse is doing in this field. The local horse with the best figures and best post is Tens Holy Spirit, but My Philly is most likely to improve. Out of Pride is the past class horse, who disappointed in last year's edition of this race as the co-favorite and has the dangerous Fogelsonger aboard. Sara's Shadow is the one who picks up pieces if the early pace falters. Secret Lies has a hot trainer. I watched her work out, standing with the trainer, and Mr. Mello was thrilled with the work.
So you see, either we go deep here or we stick with STRONG FAITH.
On to the Eighth Race, the shape of the race is lots of speed. The potential speed of the speed is the local horse Runnin' the River. Trainer Justin Evans tells us he doesn't like the post draw outside the speed.
I looked for the different horse to key and came up with the Englander-owned WHOSE CAREER, at 12-1. There are two Canani horses in here, this one and Triton Missile. They faced each other before with Triton Missile going off at 7-1 and WHOSE CAREER at 3-1. Triton Missile won, but I sense that the bettors were right. WHOSE CAREER has been claimed three times in his last four races! The owner is very high on this horse but for reasons that are not clear. He could have qualified for the lower class CC sprint, but the horses in this higher class field seem slower. WHOSE CAREER must have something that insiders know about because he had been a reclaim by Romans. His CTD works are reportly spirited.
Clearly my second choice, and a must-use horse, is Feliciano's Pretty Cagey, with the best CC rider, Fogelsonger. On figs alone, Pretty Cagey is the fastest horse in this field. He is capable of coming from off the pace, even if he has been a wire-to-wire winner.
Race 9, the Emerald, is wide open. My key horse is the over-achieving DR. DETROIT at 6-1 in the ML. Ann Merryman is the hot trainer on the turf at Colonial, and this horse has a class advantage. Fogelsonger helps the cause. This horse was thought highly enough to race in company with Artie Schiller and Better Talk Now.
Al's Dearly Bred is the local horse, a former CC winners, with six wins out of seven on the course. He must be used.
I asked Mullins why he'd entered the 0-for-4 turf horse Entry Point in this race, and he said, "because the owner wanted to". Mullins says this horse is better now than when he first tried the turf, but regardless of the fact that the owner has been successful at Claiming Crown, I couldn't put this one on top. Steve Fierro put him on top because of the trainer.
The real toteblaster here could be STORM COMING, a true overachiever. This one is the exotic inclusion: won at 15-1, won at 11-1, 3rd at 43-1 and a close 5th at 70-1 vs. the classy Fort Prado.
In an extremely contentious field, this one must be used in some way.
Finally, the feature, a 6 horse field in which five have a reasonable chance.
My key here is MINING FOR SILVER at 6-1 in the ML. Michael Tammaro is red hot at CD. Sarvis comes in to ride this one and Sarvis is 3 for 3 on this horse. The trainer was not there. The groom told me that this horse is "eatin' good and training good. If he runs his race, they'll have to beat him."
No surprise is Sandburr wins (nearly equaled the Arlington track record). No surprise if Me My Mine Wins. He's a presser who may inherit the lead, but the trainer told us he's not concerned about that. Englander supplemented this horse. Sinners N Saints is my second choice, 6 for 11 on the dirt, and the owners are flying Bejarano in to ride the horse.
Nevertheless, with the four horses I've mentioned with roughly an equal chance, I've decided that Mining On Silver is the value for keying.
PS. After I made my program selections, I checked the Thoroughgraph. The lower figs are the best. Mining For Silver has two 1s and a 3. Sandburr has a 1 and a 3. Me My Mine has two 3s. The improving Sinners N Saints has a 3 in his last race, and Come On Chas has two 2s, but both on off tracks. Otherwise he's got a 4 as best. Feature's best is a 6.
I apologize in advance for not having time to proofread. This will probably be my last post for Claiming Crown, but please recheck Saturday morn in case I've managed to track down a few more trainers.
As is usually the case, the best races to invest in are the deeper races. If you scan the fields, you'll see many horses that were not mentioned here which, if you win, you can look back and say, "Hey, that horse figured."
This is a great and humbling game. The next C&X could be the best ever, as I've collected a wealth of information and interviews. I've been disqualified from a 14-1 winner and lost a 10-horse show parlay proposition bet that would have paid off at 200-1 because one of the 10 finished a close fourth.
Someone explain to me how so many spectator sports outdo racing when here we can participate with our mind and soul and find greatest drama on earth.
mc