Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BELMONT
I had two horses to name for Saturday afternoon:
Casino Drive, son of a mare who produced the last two Belmont winners, with his hyper-patient handlers reaching the finale of a long campaign targeting the Belmont, and now facing a favorite that has not beaten any memorable horses in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and who will be 2/5. Will you take 2/5? Can he win? Of course he can! He wasn’t pushed hard in the Preakness and once again he faces an incredibly mediocre field.
And in the deeply contentious Manhattan Handicap, Proudinsky, 4 wins in 4 starts following a layoff (if you count the debut win), who defeated Daytona, sandwiching the only loss for big D in his last eight races. It was supposed to be yielding, a perfect surface for Proudinsky, who’s only won once on firm ground.
Well, then comes the news that (1) “Casino Drive is in doubt” because of a stone bruise on his left hind foot, but that owner Tada and trainer Fujisawa still want to run: but only if they’re sure the horse is well, and (2) that the previously forecast rains will not arrive to help along Proudinsky.
Nevertheless, I have to trust that the image-conscious Casino Drive stable will not risk an embarrassing defeat after displaying so consummate patience to get here, and that Proudinsky has shown he can win on firm turf.
I’ve watched Casino Drive’s Peter Pan, I’ve watched the six previous Belmonts, I’ve watched Proudinsky’s defeat of Daytona when Daytona forced him to fan wide, and I’ve watched everything else I could see.
In studying the Belmont for an alternative horse, I reviewed the unexpected victories of Sarava in 2002 and Birdstone catching the valiant Smarty Jones in 2004. Sarava’s pps looked even worse than some of the hapless colts facing Big Brown. I liked Denis of Cork in the Derby because he was a horse for course, so I like him less here. I liked Icabod Crane in the Preakness because he too was the local specialist, but he loses that advantage at Belmont.
So my other horse for the Belmont would have to be the seemingly slowpoke Tale of Ekati, because in fact, he’s the other Japanese horse (his Japanese mom) and in a field laden with plodders, his tactical pace should have him in a better early position against Big Brown, who figures to control the pace. Tale of Ekati had throat treatment after a 118.2 workout, displaced palate, and then came back with a 111.8. Three works back he fired a bullet. All these works are over the Belmont track, and in races, he’s 2 for 2 on the track. Horses in training at Belmont do better than expected in Belmont Stakes. Barclay Tagg is a master in stakes races.
So, my three horses are Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati, and of course, Big Brown.
As for the Manhattan, a good lawyer can make an argument for just about every horse in the field. Pays to Dream (Big Win on turf), Dancing Forever (neck behind Einstein), Stalingrad (three straight wins on grass vs. lesser, and never worse than second on this surface), Out Of Control (the other Frankel horse, chosen by Gomez over Proudinsky and only a length behind Einstein), two horses for the always dangerous McLaughlin, Strike a Deal (2 places in 2 starts at the distance) and other arguments for other candidates, including the previous winner of this race, none other than Better Talk Now (the old guy seems to have lost a few steps but has a rabbit in here).
In any case, I’ll stick with Proudinsky as the key:
After layoff or debut: 4 4-0-0
Not after layoff: 6 0-3-1
And has works on poly to prove he’s ready.
Figures to be an exciting day, though not necessarily a winning one.
Have a good time.
Mark