Mark Cramer
C & X Report

BC05
Post 2
BCMILE
I have settled on Valixir as my key horse in the mile. Those of you who are looking for a tout’s pick can stop here, sign off, and bet the horse. But those of you who are looking for objective commentary and information can read on and decide whether my arguments are truly objective.
Not taking anything away from the legit favorite, Leroidesanimaux, who worked out in front bar shoes because of a minor foot problem, I find a number of arguments on the side of Valixir, at least for an in the money finish at relatively high odds.
His last race can be excused because it came at the end of a long summer campaign. He lost to the same horse he had beaten earlier on, Starcraft, when both Valixir and Starcraft were coming back after layoffs. In fact, Valixir runs well fresh, and won as a first-time starter (an important stat to be covered in the upcoming C&X). His victory at York in the Queen Anne Stakes shows that he can ship. He won a couple of others off layoffs, including his defeating Bago in the Prix Niel in 2004. Finally, his trainer is on a roll. Fabre, the trainer of Arcangues, knows the BC.
I’m worried about the favorite, as well as the horse for course, Artie Schiller, and the guy who beat Artie Shiller as an invader, Funfair, whose trainer Graham Motion is a guy that a bettor can back regularly. I’m assuming that Cumani’s Starcraft will choose the Classic. Otherwise he too is a major player here.
OTHER ANGLES: SPRINT
C&X’s resident veterinarian says that the displaced palate operation is an overrated factor. He says that you can’t get a horse to start faster just because he’s had this operation.
However, Lifestyle has never had trouble getting out quickly. His problem was finishing. Which could be a breathing problem. I just can’t get around a horse that wins by 9 ¾ and 13 ½ in his first two races.
However, the Sprint, with a legitimate favorite in Lost in the Fog, has other seductive angle horses. Everything must be considered, since Fog has not defeated any great horses. Compare his competition with that of Wildcat Heir, who defeated Midas Eyes and Clock Stopper two races back, but way back in November 04. At Belmont on 21July04, he won a key race at Belmont. He came back after the long layoff and won what we call a “Big Race” (more than 5 lengths ahead) and was two ticks from equaling the Monmouth track record.
He was then layed off again, for the BC. He has proven to like coming back after a layoff, but if the track is off, we’ll have no evidence that he can handle it.
Another intriguing Sprint horse is Battle Won, who has also beaten horses that are better than the opponents of Lost in the Fog. There’s a turf-to-dirt pattern match as well. His knock is an off the board finish in the Belmont slop, but that was back in 2003.
Silver Train is the other angle horse. Twice a “Big Win” horse in his last three races, Dutrow said that ST had some sort of problem following his last work. Could Dutrow be trying to boost the odds, or was this serious?
Comparing Belmont times, Lost in the Fog got home in 121.2 following a 108.3 split. The peaking Taste of Paradise did a 108.4 flat in the Vosburgh. Wildcat Heir did 108.3 last year. Lifestyle had a 108.4 split leading to a 121.3 seven furlongs. Silver Train, on the other hand, did 107.3 on a faster Belmont surface back in July. The two horses finishing immediately behind Fog at Belmont did not come back to win their next races, and in fact, of all 20 horses finishing in the money behind Lost in the Fog, only three came back to win their next race.
What these Belmont comparables tell us is that Lost in the Fog can surely win, but that he is not worth 3/5 or 4/5.
We’ll have another report Thursday, and one on Friday. Check Saturday morn just in case I get anything late.
mc
PS. F&M Pattern Match: trainer induced. FILM MAKER moves into the F&M with the exact same two prep races, and nearly identical finishes in both, for the crafty Graham Motion. He finished second in last year's F&M. A wide open race with knocks on every horse.